Please, login in to create or share in groups/pages
Special Decentralization is what the Biya regime is planning and is likely crafted by France. It doesn't take much to see that the Biya regime can not seriously implement any form of federation or a Quebec or Hong Kong style special status.
The Hong Kong and Quebec special status carry more weight than even a federation. Regime barons shouted down federation at the East Cameroonian dialogue.
More importantly, the dying regime wants to cling to power at all cost. We do not need to look further than the recent registration of candidates running for parliamentary and municipal elections in February 2020.
Opposition candidates faced so many made up huddles that many ultimately could not register. Only regime barons will be on the ballots.
One can only conclude from these that we are looking at special decentralization. This regime is very good with words, Force of Experience, Special Status, Grand National Dialogue, Peace Caravans and Peace Tours. It is decentralization, however the regime chooses to spin it.
Southern Cameroonian moderates would be dumb to accept anything other than a confederation especially as Northern Cameroons now Adamawa State of Nigeria that never had any self-governing structure has a strong federal status.
With more than 9000 killed, hundreds of villages destroyed and hundreds of thousands displaced, the moderate Southern Cameroonians should at minimum be asking for a confederation and the exit of the Biya regime. The diehards already believe anything short of that is a non-starter.
With Maurice Kamto already in for a 2 state federation as a solution to the Southern and East Cameroonian war, the idea of special decentralization is not even an option.
It is no surprise that the Biya regime is only interested in special decentralization.
The Cameroons are about crossing another threshold. Sanctions, even the most severe may no longer be able to save the Cameroons from total collapse.
The Biya regime has no incentive for compromise. With Biya at the helm, he represents everything Ambazonians fight against. Even Biya's impending fall won't bring back the Cameroons as many knew it.
Biya can not offer anything meaningful in a special status or make any useful compromise because his regime won't survive the ensuing chaos.
The Cameroons are essentially stuck in a perpetual war that could last decades. All the ingredients of a large scale war are already in place. East Cameroon won't be immune to the war. If anything, it seems the war is already heading there.
That is seen from a disunited Ambazonian front, the hardened experience of war, the lack of collective will power of Southern and East Cameroonians to effect meaningful change, the potential loss or loss of control of resources (especially oil), France's tacit support of the dictatorial regime and the loss of lucrative political opportunities.
Basically, this is likely to be the war that was avoidable, but because of the lack of concern, especially from the international community, it spiralled into one with an incredible loss of lives.
There's no doubt as to whether Southern Cameroonians will achieve independence. That question is already settled.
Southern and East Cameroonians largely have themselves to blame for the current upheavals in the Cameroons. They lack the collective will to effect the change they so desperately want. Their direct support action for the regime of Paul Biya or their deafening silence has ensured they continue to live under dictatorship.
They are yet to learn the collective resolve of the wildebeests that know they all have to sprint into action all at once to save one of theirs from a pride of lions.
While many now look to sanctions from the outside, it is quite clear that sanctions have hardly directly kicked out any dictatorial regime.
Instead, what sanctions have really done is create so much economic hardship that people become so desperate and know they have little to lose to finally go out and kick out the regime.
Sudan is perhaps the most recent proof of that. Southern and East Cameroonians are yet to attain what the Sudanese had endured for decades under war and sanctions.
Ambazonia's war of independence to take a drastic and severe turn as groups fighting for independence begin to enforce compulsory contributions to fund the war.
This change in strategy is likely to ensure the groups have the funds to reach strategic levels they could only dream of. It also shows the groups have evolved to embrace key strategies used in past wars. They have grown stronger and feel more confident in their fight for independence.
Head chopping in the Southern Cameroons, once a rare occurrence that would spark outrage is now a daily routine that is celebrated, even glorified across the Cameroons depending on what side of the conflict people support.
It only shows how the region has degenerated and continues to devolve into chaos.
A staggering 9000 plus deaths in the Southern Cameroons because of the invasion and occupation by East Cameroon under the dictatorial regime of Paul Biya.
With the conflict now in its fourth year, the UN and the international media have consistently reported far less deaths, 3000. In fact, last year the UN reported at least 3000 deaths and that official figure has never changed even as the war has grown worse.
Aid agencies say the numbers are far higher and multiples of what the UN and the international media are reporting.
There's a general consensus from reports from the ground in the Southern Cameroons that at least 1 person dies each day in each of the 13 counties or divisions that make up the Southern Cameroons. That already gives 13 deaths a day. Even reducing the number of days in a year from 365 to 300 and the counties to 10, that would mean a minimum of 3000 deaths a year. With the conflict now in its 4th year, we are looking at a minimum of 9000 deaths.
Deaths from the conflict may result from little to no access to medical care as less than 20% of medical facilities in the Southern Cameroons are operational, diseases have spiked, minor complications from childbirth now often result in deaths, deaths from the wild as many have escaped into the bushes, deaths from starving refugees, deaths from trigger happy occupation forces, amba against military, military against amba, amba on amba and the list goes on. (Amba is the name given to groups fighting against the East Cameroonian military).
So, why do the UN and the international media report far less numbers? Are they saying a Southern Cameroonian is one third of a human?
Chris Anu, the Press Secretary of one of the Ambazonian Interim Governments (IGs) is perhaps the most effective press secretary seeking the freedom of the Southern Cameroons. His delivery, tenacity and honesty are obvious. There's no doubt what he stands for and what he believes.
The IG under him is run by an individual by the name of Samuel Sako. He is not a great orator, but he brings interesting philosophical analysis. Some people seem to think his contributory philosophical analysis are only common sense.
This interim government was very strong at the start. There's no doubt the fight for independence for The Southern Cameroons is no walk in a park. And with any independence movement comes sabotage.
Cho Ayaba of the Ambazonian Governing Council (AGC) may represent the military resolve to liberate the Southern Cameroons, but many Southern Cameroonians do not seem to see him as someone interested in working with people who do not agree with him.
Cho Ayaba of the Ambazonian Governing Council (AGC) is emerging as the leader who fully represents the military resolve of those who believe the fight for independence is no walk in the park.
He has consistently championed a military strategy. The Ambazonian war is perhaps the brainchild of his group. His military wing the Ambazonian Defence Forces (ADF) now appears to the most professional of all the ground forces fighting for the liberation of the Southern Cameroons.
Southern Cameroonians seem to have crossed an irreversible threshold in their fight for independence. It is perhaps now impossible to halt their momentum even with a change of government or a federal status.
The Biya regime is apparently still living in its own shrinking bubble. Oblivious to the many dangers it now faces.
3 years and counting and Ambazonians still struggle on the idea of unity.
Copyrights © 2019 Fonolive. All Rights Reserved.